Flood Risk Assessment of Guddu Barrage using Gumbel’s Distribution

Author(s): Saba Naz, Mirza Jawwad Baig, Syed Inayatullah, Tanveer Ahmed Siddiqi, Muhammad Ahsanuddin

This paper presents the results of the study carried out on Indus River at Guddu barrage, to analysis flood frequency using Gumbel distribution for the prediction of next flood by using pervious data. The catastrophic flood of 1976,1986 and 2010 were the examples of heavy flood in the last 50 years .The Gumbel distribution has been applied to the annual records of 36 years flood peak discharge data .The trend line equation suggest a 0.983 coefficient of determination, which shows that there is no significant differences between recorded and predicted flood flows. At the area of study, information of preceding 18 flood’s peaks of 36 years have been collected and analyzed for flood risk assessment. The forecast peak flows were obtained by proposed Gumbel’s flood frequency and analytical method have been used for different return periods.

Flood Frequency Analyses, Probability, Gumbel Distribution, Return Period, Guddu Barrage, Indus River

1. BORBDA, (2005), “Benin Owena River Basin Development Authority Hydrological year Book”, 1989 to 2008.
2. Chow, V. T., Maidment, D.R., Mays, L. W. (1988), “Applied Hydrology”. McGraw Hill Book Company, Singapore
3. Han, C. T., (1977), “Statistical Methods in Hydrology”,Iowa State University Press, Iowa.
4. Izinyon, O. C. and Igbinoba E., (2011), “Flood Frequency Analysis of Ikpoba River Catchment at Benin Cityusing Log Pearson Type III Distribution”, (JETEAS) 2 (1): 50-55.
5. Khan, G., (2007), “Flood hazard assessment and mitigation along River Indus from Chashma Barrage to Sukkur Barrage using satellite image .M.Phil thesis”, Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi.
6. Khan B., Iqbal M. J &Yousufzai M.A, (2011), “ Flood Risk Assessment of River Indus of Pakistan”,Arabian Journal of Geosciences 4(12):doi 10.1007/s12517-009-0110-9, 115-122.
7. Pegram, G and Parak, M. , (2004), “A review of the regional maximum flood and rational formula using geomorphological information and observed floods”, Water SA 30 (3), 377-388.
8. Iqbal M.J. Baig M.J and Naz S., (2011), “Dominant Impact of South Asian Low Heat on Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Central India”, Arabian Journal of Geoscience vol 6, no.6. DOI: 10.1007/s12517-011-0458-5.
9. Mujere, N., (2006), “Impact of River Flow Changes on Irrigation Agriculture”, A case Study of Chimanimani District MPhil Thesis, University of Zimbabwe, Harare.
10. Nawaz, F., (2003),“Role of GIS and RS for flood hazard management in Pakistan: A case study of Jhelum,Pakistan”,MAPAsia,(http://www.gisdevelopment.net/proceedings/mapasia/003/disaster/index.htm.
11. Reddy, J.A.,( (2006), “A textbook on hydrology”.Laxmi Publications, New Delhi India,.
12. Shaw, E.M.,(1983)., “Hydrology in Practice”. Van Nostrand Reinhold, UK
13. Solomon Okonofua* and Ogbeifun Prince,(2013) “ Flood Frequency Analysis of Osse River Using Gumbel’s Distribution ”, Civil aEnvironmental Research, vol.3,no.10.